Skip to main content

Simulation

Learn how to create and configure a Forecast Simulation in Agility to model potential revenue, efficiency, and incremental impact before launching a campaign.

Updated this week

Creating a Forecast Simulation

Forecast Simulations allow you to model potential performance outcomes before launching a campaign. By adjusting business inputs and assumptions, you can explore how budget, efficiency, and conversion dynamics may influence revenue over time.

Simulations are designed to support planning and decision-making β€” not to predict exact outcomes.


Step 1: Navigate to Simulation

From the left-hand navigation, click Simulation.

You'll land on the Simulations dashboard, which displays all of your saved simulations as cards. Each card shows the scenario name, tag, total budget, status, and last updated date. If a simulation is linked to an initiative, the initiative name and date range will appear on the card as well.

Use the Search bar to find a specific simulation by name, or filter by Tags and sort by Newest First to organize your list.


Step 2: Create a Simulation

Click + Create Simulation in the top-right corner of the page. A panel will open with the Create Scenario form.

Choose an Input Method

At the top of the form, select how you'd like to set up your scenario:

  • Manual Input β€” Define the scenario date range and budget values yourself.

  • Use Initiative β€” Pull date range and Agility Budget data from an existing initiative.

Scenario Details

Scenario Name

Use a clear, descriptive name to help identify and compare scenarios (e.g., Q1 Brand Awareness Forecast or Holiday Promo Test).

Tag (optional)

Assign a tag to categorize your simulation. The default tag is "Baseline." Tags are visible on simulation cards and can be used to filter your dashboard.

Scenario Date Range (Manual Input only)

Select the start and end dates for the forecast period.

Select Initiative (Use Initiative only)

Choose an existing initiative from the dropdown. The date range and Agility Budget will be populated from the initiative automatically.


Step 3: Define Business Scale Inputs

Business Scale inputs provide context about your company and help the model generate realistic results.

πŸ’‘ You do not need exact numbers. Reasonable estimates that reflect your business are sufficient.

  • Forecasted Monthly Revenue β€” Your estimated average monthly revenue.

  • Forecasted Monthly Marketing Budget β€” Your total estimated monthly marketing spend across all channels.

  • Monthly Agility Budget (Manual Input only) β€” The portion of your marketing budget allocated to Agility. This field does not appear when using the Initiative input method, since the budget is pulled from the selected initiative.

  • Forecasted Monthly Transactions β€” Your estimated number of monthly conversions or transactions.

Once complete, click Create Scenario.


Simulation Results Page

After creating a scenario, you'll land on the simulation results page. This page is your primary workspace for exploring forecasted outcomes and refining assumptions.

Summary Cards

At the top of the page, three summary cards provide a high-level snapshot of your scenario across the full date range:

  • Budget β€” Total Marketing Budget, Agility Budget, and Original Budget.

  • Revenue β€” Marginal Revenue, Pipeline Value, and Incremental Revenue.

  • Efficiency β€” Cohorted ROAS, Marginal CPA, Marginal ROAS, and Cohorted CPA.

These cards update in real time as you adjust controls and inputs.

Status and Actions

In the top-right corner of the page, you'll find:

  • Status indicator β€” Shows whether your changes have been saved (e.g., "Saved").

  • Actions menu β€” A dropdown with the following options:

    • Share β€” Share the simulation with others.

    • Export Excel β€” Download the simulation data as an Excel file.

    • Duplicate β€” Create a copy of the current simulation.

    • Delete β€” Permanently remove the simulation.


Controls: Modeling Assumptions

The Controls panel on the left side of the page allows you to adjust the assumptions used by the forecasting model. Controls are organized into two tabs.

Industry Benchmark

At the top of the Controls panel, the Industry Benchmark section displays the detected industry category and confidence score. If you've changed any control values from their defaults, a "Controls modified from defaults" message will appear. Click Reset to restore all controls to their benchmark defaults.

Effectiveness

Effectiveness controls influence how the model estimates conversion and revenue impact:

  • Contribution Margin After Marketing (%) β€” The percentage of revenue retained after marketing costs.

  • Conversion Rate to High Intent PageView (%) β€” The rate at which site visitors engage with high-intent pages.

  • Conversion Rate to Purchase Start (%) β€” The rate at which high-intent visitors begin a purchase.

  • Customer Lifetime Value ($) β€” The total revenue expected from a single customer over time.

Efficiency

Efficiency controls influence how the model estimates cost and return metrics:

  • Cost per Site Visit ($) β€” The average cost to drive a single visit to your site.

  • Cost per Sale / Transaction ($) β€” The average cost to acquire a single transaction.

  • Avg Order Value ($) β€” The average dollar amount per transaction.

Understanding Industry Benchmarks

Each control includes a Typical Industry Range visualization β€” a bell curve that shows where your input falls relative to similar advertisers. Benchmarks are provided for context only. They do not restrict your inputs and do not define success or failure. They are intended to help identify assumptions that may be unusually aggressive or conservative.


Forecast Charts

The chart area visualizes forecasted performance over time. The chart legend identifies three data series:

  • Forecasted Total Revenue β€” Your projected total revenue based on scenario inputs.

  • Agility Incremental Revenue β€” The additional revenue attributed to Agility's impact.

  • Agility Influenced Revenue Range β€” The modeled range of Agility's total influence on revenue.

Chart Toggles

Use the toggles above the chart to change the view:

  • Sales Impact / Efficiency Impact β€” Switch between revenue-focused and return-focused views.

  • Dollars / Volume β€” Switch between dollar amounts and unit-based metrics.

  • Totals / Incremental β€” View total influenced impact or just the incremental lift.

Y-Axis Range

You can manually adjust the Max and Min values on the Y-axis to zoom in on a specific range. Click Reset below the chart to restore the default axis scale.


Scenario Inputs: Monthly Planning

The Scenario Inputs table allows you to define how your business and budget change over time, broken out by month. Editable rows include:

  • Forecasted Total Revenue

  • Forecasted Total Marketing Budget

  • Agility Budget

These inputs drive the scale and timing of the forecast and can be adjusted month by month to model seasonality, ramp-ups, or budget shifts.

Changes are saved automatically. A "Status: All changes saved" indicator appears above the table.

Editing Tips

  • Use arrow keys to move between cells.

  • Click and drag to select multiple cells.

  • Paste values directly from Excel or Google Sheets with Ctrl+V (Cmd+V on Mac).

  • Use Ctrl+Z / Ctrl+Shift+Z (Cmd on Mac) to undo and redo.


Scenario Outputs (Calculated)

Scenario Outputs are automatically calculated based on your inputs and control assumptions. These values are read-only and update in real time.

By default, the table shows a summary row: Projected Scenario Revenue. Click Show Detailed Metrics to expand the full set of output metrics:

  • Agility Influenced Revenue β€” Total revenue influenced by Agility campaigns.

  • Agility Influenced Revenue Floor β€” The lower bound of the influenced revenue estimate.

  • Agility Incremental Revenue β€” Additional revenue directly attributed to Agility.

  • Agility Pipeline Value Created (PVC) β€” The total pipeline value generated.

  • Agility Contribution Dollars After Marketing (CDAM) β€” Revenue retained after marketing costs.

  • Agility Share of Budget β€” Agility's budget as a percentage of total marketing spend.

  • Agility Share of Revenue β€” Agility-influenced revenue as a percentage of total revenue.

  • Agility Percent of Revenue β€” Agility's incremental contribution as a percentage of total revenue.

  • Agility Influenced Transactions β€” Number of transactions influenced by Agility.

  • Agility Incremental Transactions β€” Additional transactions attributed to Agility.

  • Agility Contribution ROAS β€” Return on ad spend based on contribution dollars.

  • Agility Cohorted ROAS β€” Return on ad spend using cohort-based attribution.

  • Agility Incremental ROAS β€” Return on ad spend for incremental revenue only.

  • Agility Profit ROAS β€” Return on ad spend based on profit.

  • Agility Incremental CPA β€” Cost per acquisition for incremental conversions.

  • Agility Cost per Incremental Revenue Dollar β€” Cost to generate each incremental dollar of revenue.

  • Agility Incremental CAC β€” Customer acquisition cost for incremental customers.

  • Agility Incremental CLV to CAC β€” Ratio of customer lifetime value to acquisition cost for incremental customers.

  • Agility Incrementality Rate β€” The proportion of results that are truly incremental.

Click Hide Detailed Metrics to collapse the table back to the summary view.


Unrealistic Assumptions Warning

If your inputs result in outcomes that are mathematically or commercially unrealistic, a red warning banner will appear below the summary cards.

For example: "Your assumptions imply influenced revenue ($25,750,844) larger than total revenue ($5,000,000). This is not realistic."

Click Show more issues to see the full list of inputs contributing to the warning. Adjusting your control values or scenario inputs toward realistic ranges will resolve the alert.


Important Note on Forecasts

πŸ“ Simulation results are directional forecasts based on the assumptions provided. They are not guaranteed outcomes and should be used to evaluate trade-offs, not predict exact performance.

Did this answer your question?