This companion article to the main Simulation guide answers common questions about when to use simulations, how to interpret the results, and how to get the most out of the tool.
When Should I Run a Simulation?
Simulations are most useful in these situations:
Before launching a new campaign or Initiative — Model the projected impact of your media strategy before committing budget. This helps set realistic expectations with stakeholders and clients.
During budget planning — Test different budget levels to see how they affect projected revenue, ROAS, and CPA. This is especially helpful for quarterly or annual planning conversations.
When evaluating budget changes — If you're considering increasing or decreasing spend mid-flight, run a simulation to see how the change might affect outcomes.
When comparing scenarios — Create multiple simulations with different assumptions (e.g., aggressive vs. conservative efficiency targets) and compare them side by side.
When presenting to clients or leadership — Use simulation outputs and Excel exports to build data-backed cases for media investments.
How Do I Interpret Simulation Results?
Summary Cards
The three cards at the top of the results page give you the high-level picture:
Budget — Shows your total marketing budget, the portion allocated to Agility, and your original budget for comparison.
Revenue — Shows Marginal Revenue (additional revenue beyond baseline), Pipeline Value (projected future revenue from campaign-generated leads), and Incremental Revenue (the lift directly attributed to Agility).
Efficiency — Shows your return metrics including Cohorted ROAS, Marginal CPA, Marginal ROAS, and Cohorted CPA. These tell you how efficiently your spend is translating into results.
Charts
The forecast charts visualize your projected performance over time. Key things to look for:
Forecasted Total Revenue — Your overall revenue projection. This includes both organic revenue and Agility-influenced revenue.
Agility Incremental Revenue — The additional revenue attributed specifically to Agility. This is the "lift" your Agility campaigns are projected to create.
Agility Influenced Revenue Range — The modeled range showing the best and worst case for Agility's total influence. A wider range means more uncertainty in the projections.
Use the Sales Impact / Efficiency Impact toggle to switch between revenue-focused and return-focused views. The Totals / Incremental toggle lets you isolate just the incremental lift.
Scenario Outputs
Click Show Detailed Metrics in the outputs table to see the full breakdown. Key metrics to focus on:
Agility Incremental ROAS — Return on ad spend for incremental revenue only. This is the purest measure of Agility's efficiency.
Agility Incremental CPA — What it costs to acquire each incremental conversion.
Agility Incrementality Rate — What proportion of your Agility-influenced results are truly incremental (would not have happened without the campaign).
Agility Share of Revenue — How much of your total revenue is influenced by Agility campaigns.
What Do the Controls Mean?
The controls panel lets you adjust the assumptions the model uses. Here's a plain-language explanation of each:
Effectiveness Controls
Contribution Margin After Marketing — What percentage of revenue do you keep after all marketing costs? Higher margins mean each dollar of revenue is worth more to your business.
Conversion Rate to High Intent PageView — Of all your site visitors, what percentage engage with high-intent pages like pricing or product pages?
Conversion Rate to Purchase Start — Of those high-intent visitors, what percentage begin a purchase or transaction?
Customer Lifetime Value — How much total revenue does a single customer generate over time? This multiplies the value of each acquisition.
Efficiency Controls
Cost per Site Visit — How much does it cost on average to drive one person to your site?
Cost per Sale / Transaction — How much does it cost to generate one completed purchase?
Avg Order Value — The average dollar amount per transaction.
Each control shows a bell curve indicating how your value compares to similar advertisers. Being outside the typical range isn't necessarily wrong — but it's worth double-checking your assumptions if you're far outside the norm.
What Does the "Unrealistic Assumptions" Warning Mean?
If your inputs produce results that are mathematically impossible (for example, influenced revenue exceeding total revenue), you'll see a red warning banner. This doesn't mean your simulation is broken — it means one or more of your control values needs adjustment.
Click Show more issues to see exactly which inputs are causing the warning, then adjust those values toward more realistic ranges. The warning will disappear once your assumptions produce internally consistent results.
Tips for Better Simulations
You don't need exact numbers. Reasonable estimates that reflect your business are sufficient. The model is designed to work with directional inputs.
Start with industry benchmarks. Use the default values as a starting point, then adjust based on what you know about your business.
Create multiple scenarios. Use Tags to organize them (e.g., "Conservative," "Moderate," "Aggressive") and compare results side by side.
Link to an Initiative. When you use the "Use Initiative" input method, your date range and Agility Budget are pulled automatically — reducing manual entry and keeping your simulation aligned with your actual campaign plan.
Revisit simulations regularly. As your business metrics change, update your simulations to keep projections current.
Export to Excel. Use the Actions → Export Excel option to share simulation data with stakeholders who want to dig into the numbers.
Important Reminder
Simulation results are directional forecasts based on the assumptions you provide. They are designed to help you evaluate trade-offs and plan strategically — not to predict exact outcomes. Use them as one input into your decision-making process alongside your own experience and market knowledge.